Posted by: financiallyspeakinginc | June 9, 2008

Weekly Commentary June 9th 2008

Last week was a very interesting trading week to say the least. The week started off with uninspiring economic news, and trended downward accordingly. Thursday is when all of the fun began with initial jobless claims coming in way under expectations, and the European Central bank deciding to leave their interest rates at 4 percent due to growing concerns that if they lowered rates any more inflation could become a major issue for them.

Friday was a whole different story from the positive news that was released on Thursday; the two main players were the unemployment rate and oil. The unemployment rate came in before the start of trading at 5.5 percent, well above the expected 5.1 percent, with part of the increase being a higher than usual summer teenage jobless rate. Oil was the other large mover Friday increasing $10.75 per barrel, which is the largest ever move in dollar terms. This was brought on by a combination of many events on Friday, including a report showing that oil might be at or near $150 a barrel by July 4th, another report showing increased demand for oil in countries such as China and India and, lastly, Israel speaking about the current conditions between themselves and Iran. At one point the events of the day led to the DJIA being down more than 400 points with other indexes following suit. The DJIA closed down 2.6 percent, NASDAQ was down 2.96 percent, and the S&P 500 down 3.08 percent.

For the trading week ending 6/6/2008 the returns in our portfolio models are as follows:

Last Week

Year to Date

S&P 500 (benchmark)

-2.80%

-6.52%

Aggressive Model

-0.85%

-1.37%

Growth Model

-0.93%

-0.58%

Moderate Model

-0.94%

-0.45%

Stable Model

-1.11%

-0.59%

Our best performing fund for the week was our short position (DXSSX) with a return of 6.23 percent, most of which occurred on Friday when the market gave up 3.08 percent and DXSSX was up 7.47 percent. Our biggest detractor from performance for the week was our Asian Ex-Japan holding which was down 3.74 percent. International markets across the board last week were hit harder than the US markets and that is reflected in our international funds. Overall, we do not feel that there is a portfolio shift needed away from these funds. The main driver of the negative performance of the international funds last week was the rising strength of the US dollar and the increasing price of oil.

The current week is pretty light on the economic data releases, with the main indicators being retail sales figures on Thursday (6/12), and the Core CPI and the CPI numbers on Friday (6/13).

With the increase in the price of oil last week, we are expecting a little bit of a pull back in the price over the course of this week barring any unforeseen news or events. A pull back in the price of oil typically results in the stock market going up, but the market has been moving anything but typically in the recent past.


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